2019-02-26 17:02 编译：小龙线上共读joanloong
原网页：https://www.sohu.com/a/297779059_100035070
OF THE €57.7bn ($68.2bn) of loans that Piraeus Bank, one of Greece’s four dominant lenders, had on its books at the end of March, €20.5bn were more than 90 days overdue. A further €11.7bn were also deemed unlikely to be repaid. In all, at the end of 2017 Greek banks carried €95.7bn of such non-performing exposures (NPEs)—at 43.1% of loans, the heaviest burden in Europe. Still, the pile was €13bn smaller than at its peak in March 2016. The banks plan to reduce it by €30bn this year and next.
截至3月底，希腊四大贷款银行之一的比雷埃夫斯银行（Piraeus Bank）账面贷款有577亿欧元（合682亿美元），其中205亿欧元逾期超过90天。另外还有117亿欧元注定无法收回。从总体上看，到2017年底，希腊银行的此类不良贷款风险敞口（non-performing exposure，NPEs）高达957亿欧元——不良贷款率高达43.1％，是欧洲不良贷款率最高的。尽管如此，这仍比2016年3月达到的峰值要少130亿欧元。希腊银行业计划将于今明两年将不良贷款风险敞口减少300亿欧元。
Dealing with bad loans to business—around 60% of NPEs, mostly to small firms—is the most daunting part of this monumental job. It means resetting the balance-sheet of much of Greece’s economy, from restaurants to manufacturing. But a new phase of this task is under way, with the first sale of secured commercial loans.
而在这一浩大工程之中，小企业拖欠的不良贷款约占到约60％，成为最棘手的部分。这意味着小到餐馆大到制造业，希腊经济的大部分的资产负债表将需要重建。尽管如此，随着首批抵押商业贷款的出售，这项工作进入新阶段。
On May 29th Piraeus said it had agreed to sell Amoeba, a €1.45bn bundle of loans to around 180 borrowers, to Bain Capital Credit, which has previously bought bad debts in Italy and Spain. The collateral, comprising about 1,700 properties, is mainly in big cities. Other banks have been watching keenly. Alpha Bank, another of the four big banks, is weighing a similar sale. Bankers and investors say Amoeba has helpfully spawned an ecosystem of buyers and advisers.
5月29日，比雷埃夫斯银行表示，同意向贝恩投资信贷（Bain Capital Credit）出售阿米巴（Amoeba）——一笔约有180名债务人，价值约14.5亿欧元的贷款。贝恩投资信贷此前曾购买了意大利和西班牙的坏账。抵押物重要在大城市，包括1,700处左右的房产。其它的几家银行一直在密切关注。四大银行之一的阿尔法银行（Alpha Bank）正在权衡是否进行类似交易。银行人士和投资者表示，阿米巴项目（Amoeba）有利于催生出一个由买家和投资顾问组成的生态系统。
Clearing away the NPE rubble and renewing lending are both vital. GDP shrivelled by a quarter in 2010-13 and then stagnated for three more years. Though it is growing once more, at 1.4% in 2017 and maybe 2% in 2018, it is scarcely roaring back. Write-offs and sales have accounted for most of the reduction in NPEs, though “cures” (as borrowers return to health or simply find the cash) have ticked up too. Sales have mainly been of unsecured consumer debt, for a few cents on the euro. In October Eurobank, another leading lender, sold a €1.5bn portfolio to Intrum, a Swedish specialist, for about €40m. In March Alpha shed €3.7bn of loans to Norwegian-owned B2Kapital Greece for €90m.
处理剩余不良贷款风险敞口（NPE）和续贷都至关重要。在2010 - 2013年间，希腊国内生产总值萎缩了四分之一，并在之后三年中停滞不前。尽管希腊国内生产总值再次实现增长，在2017年增长1.4％，在2018年达到2％，却基本回涨无望。尽管相关“对策”（借款人财务恢复良好状况或是找到了现金）略有增加，仍需采用核销和售出不良贷款的方法来减少大部分风险敞口。售出的不良贷款主要是无抵押消费贷款，而且交易价格不到账面价格一成。今年10月，希腊第三大金融机构欧元银行（Eurobank）以约4000万欧元的价格向瑞典收债公司Intrum出售了价值15亿欧元的投资组合。今年3月，阿尔法银行以9000万欧元的价格将面值37亿欧元的贷款出售给挪威的B2Kapital 希腊分公司。
Selling business loans is harder. Though provisions already cover half of NPEs, and collateral notionally covers the rest, banks and loan-buyers must still discern which indebted businesses are viable and which not, and what collateral is truly worth. Debtors may owe money to more than one bank, and different parts of a property (parking space, storage areas) may have been pledged separately. Bankers reckon that 25% of defaulters are “strategic”—that is, they can pay but won’t, believing foreclosure will never come.
出售商业贷款更加艰难。虽然有关规定涵盖了一半的不良风险敞口，而理论上抵押品则牵制了其余不良资产债务人，但银行和贷款购买者仍必须辨别出哪些负债企业不会破产，哪些会破产，哪些抵押品真正有价值。债务人可能欠多家银行的款项，而且其财产的不同部分（如停车位和存储区）可能已分开抵押。银行人士认为，25％的违约者“很有策略” ，也就是说，这些负债企业有能力还清贷款却不这样做，因为他们认为抵押品赎回权永远不会取消。
Lately online public auctions of foreclosed commercial and residential properties have also begun. Up to 20,000 pieces may go under the e-hammer this year. Banks are buying a high proportion themselves—at Piraeus, 80%—but at least sales are happening. Protests prevented physical auctions last year. E-auctions have smoked out some strategic defaulters: perhaps a fifth of properties put up for sale have been pulled when borrowers found the money or asked to restructure the debt.
最近开始在线公开拍卖止赎商业和住宅地产。今年参与在线拍卖的交易可能多达20,000次。各银行在收购其中的大部分，仅比雷埃夫斯银行就达到80％。不过，至少交易仍存在。去年的抗议活动阻止了实体拍卖行为，而电子拍卖则减少一部分策略性违约者：当借款人获得资金或被要求进行债务重组时，可能只能撤销五分之一的待售房产了。
At the top of the scale Pillarstone, a turnaround specialist owned by KKR, a private-equity giant, is taking on a few large, troubled companies. It is overhauling Famar, a drugmaker, and is close to deals with Alpha and Eurobank to reshape Notos, a department-store chain, and Kallimanis, a frozen-seafood firm. Banks have also set up a forum to tackle companies owing money to more than one lender.
私募股权投资巨头科尔伯格-克拉维斯-罗伯茨（Kohlberg Kravis Roberts，KKR）旗下的企业再造机构Pillarstone正在接手几家陷入困境的大企业。Pillarstone正在帮助制药商Famar，并极有可能与阿尔法银行和欧元银行达成协议，重整百货连锁店Notos和冷冻海鲜公司Kallimanis。各银行还针对那些拖欠多家机构贷款的企业设立了一个论坛。
Among other positive signs, all four banks boast healthy capital ratios and came through stress tests by the European Central Bank (ECB) this month without being required to raise more equity. They should soon be weaned off ECB emergency funding, which by April was down to €10.2bn, from €86.7bn in mid-2015. Deposits that gushed out in the crisis have begun to flow back.
除其他积极的迹象外，四大银行的资本比率均正常，并于本月通过了欧洲中央银行（European Central Bank，ECB）的压力测试而无需筹集更多股本。各银行很快将不再依赖欧洲央行应急资金。这笔应急资金已从4月份的867亿欧元降至到2015年中期的102亿欧元。在危机中大量流出的存款已开始回流。
Yet much of the masonry is far from firm. Leonidas Fragkiadakis, chief executive of National Bank of Greece, the other big bank, resigned on the eve of the stress tests, having fallen out with his board. Private-sector deposits, at €120bn, are still 45% lower than at the end of 2009. Tens of billions are stashed in homes—even buried in gardens—or abroad.
然而，大部分银行远仍然摇摇欲坠。另一家大型银行希腊国家银行（National Bank of Greece）首席执行官莱昂尼达斯•弗拉基亚达基斯（Leonidas Fragkiadakis）与董事会不合，在压力测试前夕辞职。私人营部门的存款为1200亿欧元，仍比2009年底低45％。人们将数十亿美元现金藏在住宅中——有的甚至埋在花园里，还有的存放在国外。
Despite changes in the law intended to speed up bankruptcies, procedures are still “a mess”, believes Stathis Potamitis of PotamitisVekris, a law firm in Athens. The statute is too complicated for small firms, he says. Many new “out of court” workouts will in fact require judges’ rulings because the state, often the biggest creditor, will object to banks’ plans. And Greece lacks specialised courts: a judge can rule on a divorce one day and a foreclosure the next. Last year, according to Creditreform, a debt-collection group, Greece saw just 120 company insolvencies. Similarly-sized Portugal had over 6,000.
雅典律师事务所PotamitisVekris的Stathis Potamitis认为，尽管加快破产程序的法律有所改变，但相关程序仍是“一团糟”。他表示，有关破产的法规对小企业来说太复杂了。实际上，许多新的“庭外”和解（即债务重组）需要法官的裁决，因为各州（通常是最大的债权人）会反对银行的债务重组计划。希腊缺乏专门法院：同一位法官可以在前一天裁决离婚案，而一天后又取消抵押品赎回权。去年，债务追收集团Creditreform的数据显示，希腊只有120家企业破产。在葡萄牙，同规模的破产企业多达6,000多家。
The terms of Greece’s graduation from its third bail-out programme, due in August, also matter. Yannis Stournaras, the central bank’s governor, argues that the government should ask for a precautionary credit line from the European Stability Mechanism, as insurance against a sharp rise in borrowing costs (which would feed through to banks). The left-wing government vehemently disagrees, preferring to rely on building a cash reserve.
于8月份到期的希腊第三个紧急救援计划的期限也同样重要。欧洲央行行长Yannis Stournaras认为，政府应该要求欧洲稳定机制(European Stability Mechanism,ESM)提供预防性信贷额度，以防止借贷成本急剧上升（这些成本将转嫁给银行）。希腊左翼政府则坚决反对这一做法，而提倡建立现金储备。
Even if banks fulfil their plans, they will still have €65bn of NPEs—a ratio of 35%—at the end of 2019. Theodore Kalantonis, the head of Eurobank’s troubled-assets division, says the “biggest question” is how lenders will come up with a new plan after that, to bring NPEs closer to the European average. “Can we do it? The answer has to be yes. But it will not be easy.”
即使各家银行过盛计划，到2019年底，他们仍将拥有650亿欧元的不良敞口风险——占比为35％。欧洲银行不良资产部门负责人西奥多·卡拉顿尼斯表示，“最大的问题”是贷款人今后要怎样想出一项新的计划，使不良风险敞口接近欧洲平均水平。 “我们能做到吗？ 答案必须是能。但这并不容易做到。”
编译：小龙线上共读joanloong
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人（2018.05.31）
阅读·经济学人